Imported Ore Prices May Show a Pattern of Rising First and Then Falling in the Off-Season of July Demand
Jul 03, 2024
The iron ore price trend in June showed a general weak fluctuation, with the forward price index performing weaker than the port spot. By the end of the month, the 62% Australian powder index was at $106.6 per dry ton, with a monthly decline of 7.3%, and the Qingdao Port PB powder price was 820 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 4.98%. The iron ore spot and futures price gap narrowed, with a slight expansion in the immediate import profit of various varieties within the month. The main reason for the weakness in the black series price at the beginning of June was the reduction of macro positive news, weakening strong expectations, and the iron ore trading logic switched from macro strong expectations to weak actual fundamentals. In mid-June, iron ore prices first fell sharply in the black series due to the better-than-expected increase in U.S. non-farm employment, and then rebounded slightly under the boost of some market bottom-fishing sentiment and unexpected resumption of iron water production. In late June, the real estate economic data released for May showed poor terminal demand, coupled with continuous market production restriction news, and the black series price continued to operate weakly. The terminal demand for finished materials is obviously in the off-season due to the impact of extreme weather such as the southern flood season and the northern high temperature, which further weakens the black series price.
The black series price fluctuated weakly in June, with the 62% Australian powder index falling more than the price of rebar. By the end of the month, the 62% Australian powder index was at $106.6 per dry ton, with a monthly decline of 7.3%, and the Shanghai rebar price was 3480 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 6.2%.
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