Iron Ore Index Price Expectations for July

Conclusion: In a survey of industrial enterprises regarding the July price index, 64% of iron ore industry companies believe that the average price for July will be higher compared to June's average of $106 (as of June 21st), while 35% expect a decrease, and only 1% think it will remain relatively stable.

Survey Details:

According to the survey data from Mysteel, the main reasons for the bullish outlook include expectations of favorable policies from important meetings in July, satisfactory performance of finished products which still supports raw materials, and high daily pig iron production with limited short-term production cuts.

The main reasons for the bearish outlook are insufficient profit margins for steel mills leading to a lack of motivation for increased production, the traditional off-season for finished products in June and July with weakening performance, news of production restrictions affecting iron ore prices negatively, and the macroeconomic benefits of the first half of the year being exhausted, leading to a weaker fundamental outlook for iron ore.

A small number of companies believe that the market direction is still unclear, with unknown outcomes from important meetings and the extent of the impact of production restrictions on prices, predicting narrow price fluctuations.

Price forecast interval distribution: 73% of companies predict the price for July to be between $105 and $115 (including both $105 and $115), 19% predict below $105, and only 8% predict above $115.