Nickel, Chromium, and Stainless Steel Morning Briefing 🌞

Nickel Series 🔍

Nickel ore: With a tight supply, nickel ore prices are prone to rise but not fall easily. As of June 14, 2024, Mysteel laterite nickel ore CIF prices remain steady, currently Ni: 0.9% low aluminum ore is at $37/dry ton, Ni: 1.3% nickel ore at $33/dry ton, Ni: 1.5% nickel ore at $47-48/dry ton, and Ni: 1.8% nickel ore at $71-72/dry ton. During the week, nickel prices fluctuated downward, with the market mainly in a wait-and-see mood. Domestic nickel iron enterprises have narrowed profit margins and are cautious in negotiating nickel ore prices due to cost inversion. Philippine mines, due to cost and shipment period factors, are temporarily difficult to offer much room for concessions. In Indonesia, the supply of nickel ore remains tight. In addition, as of the 12th, in June, the number of nickel ore ships from the Philippines to Indonesia has reached 16, totaling 646,500 wet tons, exceeding the number of ships in May. In the short term, nickel ore prices are prone to rise but not fall easily.

Nickel Iron 🧲

During the week, the market sentiment was poor, and the support for nickel iron prices weakened. On June 14, the Mysteel high nickel iron domestic ex-factory price was temporarily stable at 985-990 yuan/nickel; the domestic arrival price was temporarily stable at 990-1000 yuan/nickel; the Indonesian high nickel iron bottom price including tax was temporarily stable at 985-995 yuan/nickel, and the Indonesian nickel iron FOB price was temporarily stable at $118/nickel. During the week, the trading atmosphere in the nickel iron market turned weak, and the market sentiment, coupled with the pressure of terminal demand, led to a weakening support for nickel iron prices. Under the game of supply and demand, the negotiation range was slightly loosened, and the latest transaction price in the market went to 980-985 yuan/nickel (including tax upon arrival). On the cost side, considering its own costs, the ore side has limited room for concessions and maintains a firm offer. On the supply side, the current iron factory offer is firm, mostly around 1020 yuan/nickel (ex-factory including tax). On the demand side, the stainless steel market continues to fluctuate, and the spot market transaction is general. At present, steel mills still hold a price-pressing mentality for the purchase of nickel iron, and inquiries are mostly around the average price +10. The game of supply and demand price difference, the subsequent need to pay attention to the latest transaction dynamics in the market as well as the situation of the return of Indonesian nickel iron.

Refined Nickel 🌟

The nickel price continues to fall, and the premium for refined nickel has risen in many cases. Last week, the mainstream premium for Jinchuan nickel against the Shanghai nickel 2407 was quoted at 2400-3200 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week; the real-time calculated premium for the ex-factory price of Jinchuan nickel in the Shanghai area was 2740-3050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5500 yuan/ton from the previous week. The mainstream premium for Russian nickel against the Shanghai nickel 2407 was quoted at -100 to 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The mainstream premium for nickel beans against the Shanghai nickel 2407 was quoted at -2300 to -1300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton from the previous week. The mainstream premium for Japanese Sumitomo nickel against the Shanghai nickel 2407 was quoted at 3200-3300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The mainstream premium for Norwegian slab nickel against the Shanghai nickel 2407 was quoted at 3400-5000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1600 yuan/ton from the previous week. During the week, the nickel price continued to fall, and the downstream purchase was still relatively active on the first day after the Dragon Boat Festival, but the market's divergence on whether the nickel price can continue to fall has expanded, and the spot premium quotation is quite scattered. Subsequently, affected by macro factors, the nickel price maintained a downward trend, and the spot premium for various brands of refined nickel gradually increased. The supply of Jinchuan resources is relatively stable, but as the spot premium continues to rise, transactions gradually weaken. Brands such as Huayou's electro-deposited nickel have risen to the premium level, and warehouse receipts have begun to enter the market, with the supply pattern of electro-deposited nickel recently easing slightly. The import loss of Norwegian and Sumitomo resources is still large, and the current import is mainly based on the agreed volume, with the overall supply being tight. During the week, the spot gradually consumed, and the spot premium rose sharply. Nickel beans have made a slight profit from self-dissolving to produce sulfuric acid nickel, and the downstream market is actively looking for goods, but under the condition of import loss, the enthusiasm of traders to import is not high.